Monday, February 6, 2012

Solving the US economic crisis in four easy steps

Is it just me, or does anyone else feel that the powers-that-be are making rather heavy weather of this crisis? I have a lot of respect for economists -- indeed some of the people I love most in the world are economists -- but they're not hugely practical, as a rule. When you want something done, and done quickly, it's best to ask stay-at-home Moms (or Dads). Super-quick, multiple problem-solving is our forte. The entire economic crisis could, in my view, be quite easily solved just by following four simple steps. (I should add: other stay-at-home parents please pitch in with your own ideas.  As long as you don't have a 9 to 5 job, and are not the "main breadwinner" in your family, I welcome your thoughts)

1. GIVE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS THEIR PAPERS. If you know quite a few illegals, as I do, you will know that many of them are dying to buy cars, houses and set up companies. Since 9/11, and not being allowed drivers' licenses, these things have become virtually impossible for them to do. Let them do it, and the economy will flourish, as 15 million additional people buy houses, cars and set up companies. What an amazing gift! It's like winning the lottery! And so much easier than arguing about whether fiscal stimulus works or not, or how much we should tax the rich.

I can already hear a few counter-arguments:

a) But they've broken the law! We can't reward that!
I know it's a cheap shot to make comparisons with Hitler, and I try to avoid it in general, but in this case, I'm making an exception. Let me remind you of the Nuremberg Laws. Just because something is a law passed by what is apparently a democracy,  and just because you believe in the rule of law, that does not mean that all laws should be respected. Some are grossly discriminatory, and anyone with a conscience should oppose them. Illegal immigrants are people living in this country, many of them working extremely hard, why should they be deprived of basic rights, like driving a car? I'm not a Christian except in a very loose sense of the word, but if I were, I'd find it particularly hard to stand in front of God, on judgment day, and admit that depriving honest people of their papers was something I acquiesced in.

b) They'll take away jobs from poor Americans!
Guys, they're already here. They've already taken those jobs. If you legalize them, if anything they'll compete less for low-paid jobs, because they'll ask employers for health care, they'll pay taxes, they'll refuse to be exploited for less than the minimum wage. So if you're worried about them taking low-paying jobs for goodness' sake use your common sense: it's all the more reason to legalize them.

This partly ties in with no. 2, because as you may or may not know, part of the reason illegal aliens are popular with employers, is that they can't ask for healthcare benefits:
2. ABOLISH EMPLOYER-PROVIDED HEALTHCARE. This employer-based healthcare system is simply the nuttiest part of the American economy, period. In China, Russia and other Socialist countries, they've spent years reforming state-owned enterprises (often under advice from American advisers and bankers) so that companies do NOT provide healthcare. Here in the US, however, it's the norm. Hello? A company is not a good vehicle for providing healthcare. Unless it's a hospital or a doctor's office, it's supposed to be providing other kinds of services, or producing products. Why on earth get them involved in providing something as complicated as healthcare?
Also, the number of people I know who get a job (instead of setting up a business, or being freelance) just because they want the benefits. Imagine if those people didn't have to worry about those benefits, and they could actually do the work they wanted to! And contribute to making the economy more dynamic! Again, complete no-brainer. The healthcare system stifles initiative and economic efficiency.

(I don't want to go on here about the limitations of the US health system, admittedly one of my pet peeves, but you do have to worry about any economy where, when you get prospectuses for adult education courses, one career path which is highlighted as having 'strong growth prospects' in the years to come is the "Health Certification Program" which turns you into a "Certified Billing and Coding Specialist." Enough said.)

And now on to no. 3. This is a recent one for me:
3. BREAK UP THE BANKS. My breakthrough on this topic is actually fairly recent, and prompted by an interview I did with Francis Fukuyama while taking a break from my screaming kids. I drove into the office for a 50 minute rest from "Mummy, I want to watch TV, now!" and was completely blown away by everything he had to say. In particular, Frank completely convinced me that breaking up the banks does have to happen. Wall Street bankers are just too savvy for regulators and rating agencies, and they always will be. The only solution is not to have banks that are too big too fail.

As an aside, I should add that I do think Freddie and Fannie distort the mortgage market, and local banks' ability to think for themselves. Having shopped around for mortgages to finance our house, it seems to be that the core of the mortgage business here, in upstate New York, is about flogging off loans to these government agencies. Suggest a mortgage that doesn't fit their criteria for some reason (like our house doesn't), and most lenders will say no: even if the sensible parameters which a loan should be judged by (how much the underlying asset is worth, the borrower's ability to pay) are completely out of the ballpark. Generally, I'm a somewhat-left-of-centre stay-at-home Mom, but on this one, I'm with the conservatives, abolish Freddie and Fannie!

4. PROBLEMS WITH THE US TAX CODE? NO NEED TO REFORM IT,  JUST IMPORT THE BRITISH ONE! 
Boy oh boy, Americans sure love exporting their ideas overseas. With the odd exception (100,000+ people dead in Iraq) it's mostly a good thing. But sometimes it's important to realize that life is not a one-way street, and Americans can learn from other places too. My simple solution for the tax code is that rather than reforming the US one, (and, anyway, how can you reform something no one understands in the first place? ) just import the UK one wholesale. The UK system works great. I know. I am an international-type person and I have to  fill in both a US tax return (except I can't, so I have to get an accountant to do it for me because it's so complicated, even though I earn less than $40,000 a year, and I don't own a single stock or bond, or have any retirement account) and I fill in a UK one. The UK one takes me 15 minutes to fill in! Earlier this month I did it while my Dad, who was visiting from Italy, was having a beer! Clearly it's a superior system. Also, while the IRS seems like a great place, IMHO the civil servants who staff the UK's Inland Revenue are a more sensible bunch. It might just be worth transporting them across the Atlantic to administrate the new tax code that we've just implemented. Though it's true that might lead to problems with the INS, who are even less efficient than the IRS...

So I'll let that one go for now. But it's all pretty simple really, isn't it, when it comes down to it? Let's get these four things done, and move on already. 

Sunday, March 27, 2011

THE TSUNAMI AND JAPAN'S NUCLEAR PROBLEMS: Why was the nuclear power station closest to the epicenter OK?

Here is a private email from Hiroki Takeuchi, a political scientist who did his PhD at UCLA and is now Assistant Professor of Political Science and a Fellow of the John G. Tower Center at Southern Methodist University. Given the importance of the issues at stake, he kindly gave me permission to publish his personal views.

He writes: "I want to add one aspect to the current debate about the future of nuclear energy given the current accident in Japan. The accident occurred in one particular power plant: Fukushima Daiichi Power Station. Conventional wisdom is that it occurred because of the unexpected scale of earthquake and tsunami. It is probably not true. The nuclear power station located closest to epicenter, Onagawa Power Station, had no damage and stopped with no problem after the earthquake. Onagawa was exposed bigger earthquake and bigger tsunami than Fukushima Daiichi. So this is not a problem of nuclear energy against earthquake and tsunami but a problem of Fukushima Daiichi Power Station. Also, Fukushima Daini Power Station, located in the neighborhood of Fukushima Daiichi, had no problem, either.

Fukushima Daiichi's potential problem has been raised since 2006 when the problem was discussed in the Diet (raised by a lawmaker from the Japanese Communist Party). Tokyo Electric Power promised to fix the problem, but it has never fixed the problem. Fukushima Daiichi's intake of sea water was fragile against tsunami, so it would not draw water once exposed with tsunami. It is what happened. No other nuclear power stations had a similar problem, that is why Onagawa and others stopped with no problem, while they could draw water to cool down reactors.

Tokyo Electric is notorious about collusion with the government. So this is not an issue of nuclear technology, but an issue of producer-regulator collusion or corruption."


I don't know enough about the particulars of the situation to verify what he says, but if he is right, it raises serious issues for the nuclear programs in some other countries, such as China.

Sources
For those who read Japanese, Hiroki has provided the following link:
http://www.fsight.jp/article/10319
It's from the Japanese online magazine Foresight, and refers to the Diet discussion he mentions.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Correcting Some Erroneous Writing on Healthcare

Following this revelation on the Wonk Room, I have started rewriting Senator Ron Johnson's WSJ March 24 op-ed to more accurately reflect reality (italics are my version)

ObamaCare and Carey's Heart
My daughter probably wouldn't have survived in a system where bureaucrats stifle innovation and ration care.

French Healthcare and Carey's Heart
My daughter probably wouldn't have survived if it wasn't for an invention made by French doctors

By RON JOHNSON

Today is the first anniversary of the greatest single assault on our freedom in my lifetime: the signing of ObamaCare. As we consider what this law may do to our country, I can't help but reflect on a medical miracle made possible by the American health-care system. It's one that holds special meaning for me.

Today is the first anniversary of the greatest progress towards freedom in my lifetime: the signing of ObamaCare, finally giving Americans what every developed country in the world already has, and considered by many a basic human right, access to healthcare. As we consider what this law may do to our country, I can't help but reflect on a medical miracle made possible by the French health-care system. It's one that holds special meaning for me.


Some years ago, a little girl was born with a serious heart defect: Her aorta and pulmonary artery were reversed. Without immediate intervention, she would not have survived.

Some years ago, a little girl was born with a serious heart defect: Her aorta and pulmonary artery were reversed. Without immediate intervention, she would not have survived.

The infant was rushed to another hospital where a surgeon performed a procedure at 1 a.m. that saved her life. Eight months later, when her heart was the size of a small plum, an incredibly dedicated and skilled team of medical professionals surgically reconstructed it. Twenty-seven years later, the young woman is now a nurse in a neonatal intensive care unit where she is studying to become a nurse practitioner.

The infant was rushed to another hospital where a surgeon performed a procedure at 1 a.m. that saved her life. Eight months later, when her heart was the size of a small plum, an incredibly dedicated and skilled team of medical professionals surgically reconstructed it. Twenty-seven years later, the young woman is now a nurse in a neonatal intensive care unit where she is studying to become a nurse practitioner.

She wasn't saved by a bureaucrat, and no government mandate forced her parents to purchase the coverage that saved her. Instead, her care was provided under a run-of-the-mill plan available to every employee of an Oshkosh, Wis., plastics plant.

She wasn't saved by a bureaucrat (adopting a 19th century British innovation, surgery in the US is carried out by a surgeon), and no government mandate forced her parents to purchase the coverage that saved her (which is a pity, as if there had been a mandate, those less fortunate than my daughter would have had been saved as well - plus the overall cost of healthcare would be lower for everyone, as it is in France and other Europeans countries). Instead, her care was provided under a run-of-the-mill plan available to every employee of an Oshkosh, Wis., plastics plant. (true, in France even people not working in plastics plants can get care)

If you haven't guessed, this story touches my heart because the girl is my daughter, Carey. And my wife and I are incredibly thankful that we had the freedom to seek out the most advanced surgical technique. The procedure that saved her, and has given her a chance at a full life, was available because America has a free-market system that has advanced medicine at a phenomenal pace.

If you haven't guessed, this story touches my heart because the girl is my daughter, Carey. And my wife and I are incredibly thankful that we had the freedom to seek out the most advanced surgical technique. The procedure that saved her, and has given her a chance at a full life, was available because France has a great health system that has advanced medicine at a phenomenal pace, including developing this particular operation.


I don't even want to think what might have happened if she had been born at a time and place where government defined the limits for most insurance policies and set precedents on what would be covered. Would the life-saving procedures that saved her have been deemed cost-effective by policy makers deciding where to spend increasingly scarce tax dollars?

I don't even want to think what might have happened if she had been born at a time and place where insurance companies define the limits for care and set precedents on what would be covered. Would the life-saving procedures that saved her have been deemed cost-effective by United Healthcare, who in at least two cases that I know of personally have tried to get out of paying for procedures, presumably because they need to make a profit?

Carey's story sounds like a miracle, but America has always been a place where medical miracles happen. Since 1970, American doctors have won more Nobel Prizes for Medicine than all other countries combined.

Carey's story sounds like a miracle, but France has always been a place where medical miracles happen. Louis Pasteur...